Recent polling from two crucial swing states indicates that Donald Trump’s near-miss assassination attempt might have done wonders for his popularity. It’s almost as if getting shot at has become a bizarre political strategy.
“Overall, the data does show some positive movement for Trump in the aftermath,” commented Kevin Wagner, co-director of Florida Atlantic University’s Political Communication Lab. However, Wagner also cautioned against jumping to conclusions: “These numbers are subject to response bias and come from a relatively small and volatile sample.”
Surveys conducted by FAU and Main Street Research from July 12 to 15 show that Trump is gaining traction in Virginia, a state he lost by 10 points to Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Before the shooting on July 13, Biden led a three-way race with 42% to Trump’s 39%, with both tied at 34% among independents. When Kamala Harris is substituted for Biden, the dynamic remained similar, with Harris leading Trump 43% to 38%.
After the shooting, the figures took a noticeable turn. The latest FAU/Main Street polls indicate a tight race in Virginia, with Biden barely leading Trump, 43% to 42%. Trump now commands 88% support from Republicans, compared to Biden’s 79% backing from Democrats. In a hypothetical matchup against Harris, Trump actually edges ahead, 41% to 40%, as Harris’s support among Democrats dips to 69%.
Another poll by Virginia Commonwealth University shows Trump leading 42% to 39%, highlighting a significant drop in Biden’s support among black voters, who have decreased by 20 points to 46%. The FAU survey paints a slightly better picture for Biden, with 70% black voter support, Trump at 12%, and Kennedy surprisingly capturing 18%.
In Georgia, the scenario is equally revealing. Before the shooting, Trump led Biden 46% to 40% in a three-way race, with Trump securing 89% of Republicans, whereas Biden had 81% of Democrats. Harris performs worse in Georgia, trailing Trump 49% to 38% before the shooting, with only 72% of Democrats backing her.
After the assassination attempt, Trump’s lead over Biden remains steady at 44% to 37%, despite losing some independent voters. Trump retains 88% of GOP support, compared to Biden’s 80% from Democrats. Against Harris, Trump’s advantage grows to 46% to 38%, with Harris receiving only 77% support from Democrats.
Biden’s re-election enthusiasm among Democrats appears tepid. In Georgia, 65% of Democrats and 60% of Biden 2020 voters want him to run again. In Virginia, only 54% of Democrats and 52% of 2020 Biden voters express the same desire.
In the strange world of politics, a near-death experience seems to have given Trump a surprising boost. Meanwhile, Biden and Harris face an uphill battle as they try to rally support for another term in office.
