It seems Donald Trump is having a field day in the polls, particularly in those all-important swing states, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris playing catch-up. According to a New York Times poll, Trump is ahead of Harris in Arizona by a solid five points, with a 50% to 45% spread. Georgia tells a similar story, with Trump holding a 49%-45% lead. North Carolina? Well, that’s a bit tighter, but still, Trump is edging her out with a 49%-47% advantage. It’s almost like déjà vu from the 2020 election, except this time, Trump’s not the underdog.
The poll, conducted by the Times between September 17-21, surveyed 2,077 likely voters across Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina—three states that could make or break the election. Arizona, in particular, is shaping up to be quite the swing. In August, a Times poll had Harris leading Trump by five points there. That lead has vanished quicker than you can say “election meddling,” and now Trump’s on top. Meanwhile, a Fox News national poll just days ago showed Harris clinging to a two-point lead nationally, but hey, we all remember how national polls worked out in 2016, right?
A lot has happened since the last polls in mid-August. Let’s not forget the Democratic National Convention, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s exit from the race (and his rather surprising endorsement of Trump), and the Cheneys—yes, both Dick and Liz—deciding to back Harris. Add in a debate, plus a second assassination attempt on Trump, and it’s safe to say the political landscape isn’t exactly stable. Yet despite all the drama, Trump seems to be holding steady in the battleground states that matter most.
Republican pollsters, of course, are feeling pretty good about these numbers. They remember 2016 all too well—Hillary Clinton may have won the popular vote by 2%, but Trump walked away with the Electoral College. Daron Shaw, a Republican pollster who works on Fox News surveys, pointed out that if Trump stays within two points of Harris nationally, he’s got a very good shot at taking the Electoral College again. The battleground data is backing that up, much to the dismay of Democrats.
All in all, it’s shaping up to be another wild ride. National polls might show Harris with a slight edge, but if Trump keeps leading in these key swing states, it’s going to be a long night for the Democrats come Election Day. After all, it’s the electoral votes that count, not the popular vote—a lesson the left should have learned by now.
