It looks like the winds are blowing in the Republicans’ favor for the 2024 election, according to a new Gallup poll. For starters, more Americans are identifying with the GOP than the Democrats, which might be a sign that the Democrats’ grip on voters is starting to loosen. Between July and September, Gallup found that 48% of voters identified as Republicans or leaned that way, compared to only 45% for the Democrats. The numbers are small, but in a game of tight margins, every percentage point matters.
What’s really interesting is how Americans are viewing the major issues. When it comes to handling the most pressing problems facing the country—issues like the economy and immigration—46% of voters think the GOP is better equipped to tackle them, while only 41% believe the Democrats can manage. Given the current state of things, it’s not too hard to see why the Democrats aren’t winning any popularity contests on these issues. People are worried about their wallets, and immigration continues to be a flashpoint.
Then there’s the question of prosperity. Half of the voters trust the Republicans to keep America prosperous, compared to 46% who are still holding out hope that the Democrats can do the job. But when it comes to keeping America safe, the divide is glaring. A solid 54% of voters think the GOP is more capable of protecting the country from international threats, while only 40% feel the same way about the Democrats. That’s quite a gap, and one that might be tough for the Democrats to close, especially with the world as unstable as it is.
If you’re wondering why the Democrats are losing ground, look no further than voter dissatisfaction with the current administration. Just 22% of voters are happy with how things are going in the country, and President Biden’s approval rating is languishing at 39%. The economic index is sitting at a grim -28, with most Americans saying the economy is in poor shape and getting worse, according to Gallup. These numbers don’t exactly inspire confidence in the Democrats’ leadership.
Historically, Democrats have enjoyed an edge in party affiliation since the Reagan era, except for a few notable exceptions like 2004. But Republicans have never had an outright advantage in party affiliation during the third quarter of a presidential election year, until now. Gallup pointed out that Democrats typically win when they have a big lead in party affiliation, like in 1992, 2008, or 2020. But in years where that advantage was smaller—like in 2004 and 2016—the Republicans managed to clinch victory, even if it meant winning the electoral college rather than the popular vote. With party identification leaning more toward the GOP this time, the Democrats might have a real uphill battle in 2024.
