It looks like Donald Trump is sitting pretty in the latest polls, especially in those crucial swing states. Atlas Intel, known for being one of the more accurate pollsters back in 2020, has just released numbers that show Trump leading in some key battlegrounds. Let’s break it down: In Pennsylvania, Trump is leading Harris by a solid 2.9%, with Wisconsin showing a 1.5% lead for Trump. Michigan, a state that you’d think would be stronger for Harris, has Trump ahead by 3.4%. Georgia and Arizona are close, but Trump still holds a slight edge. Meanwhile, Nevada and North Carolina are leaning toward Harris, but the margins aren’t exactly commanding.
Now, while these numbers look promising for Trump, there’s always room for a little skepticism when it comes to polling. It’s surprising to see Trump doing so well in Michigan, a state that was supposed to be more favorable for Harris. If these numbers hold, Harris could be in some serious trouble. North Carolina’s results also seem off, with Harris leading by a couple of points. But it wouldn’t be shocking if that state flips to Trump, especially given his historical strength there. The polling in Pennsylvania, which shows Trump leading with women, might raise some eyebrows, but it’s still a significant lead for him in one of the most important states.
Then we’ve got Rep. Elissa Slotkin from Michigan sounding the alarm last week. She warned that her own internal polling shows Harris underwater in Michigan, a critical state that Democrats need to hold onto. Slotkin herself is trailing Republican Mike Rogers in the Senate race by nearly six points, which could have big implications for control of the Senate. If you take Slotkin’s warning seriously, Michigan might be slipping further away from Harris than the Democrats would like to admit.
Adding to the excitement, Trafalgar’s recent Pennsylvania poll also has Trump up by 2.2%, which mirrors the Atlas Intel numbers. This has now shifted the RealClearPolitics average back into Trump’s favor in Pennsylvania, and if you toss out the outlier poll from Bloomberg/Morning Consult—which many regard as unreliable—the average would tilt even more toward Trump. For context, Biden and Clinton both had bigger leads at this point in their respective races, but we all know how that worked out for Hillary. Trump is in a much better position at this stage compared to 2016.
So, with Trump holding steady or pulling ahead in these key states, things are looking pretty good for him. But there’s no room for complacency. It’s all about turnout, and the GOP will need to make sure their voters get to the polls to seal the deal.
#Updated Electoral Map Based on @atlas_intel polling (538 rank: 2.7/3.0)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 29, 2024
🟥 Trump 290 🏆
🟦 Harris 248
——
Michigan – 🔴 Trump +3.4
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump +2.9
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump +1.5
Arizona – 🔴 Trump +1.2
Georgia – 🔴 Trump +0.6
North Carolina – 🔵 Harris +2.4
Nevada – 🔵… https://t.co/0Z4n29uwHu pic.twitter.com/63VyDyDWl2
