Donald Trump just saw a massive boost in the polls, with new data showing him leading in nearly all the key swing states. As we enter the final lap of this election, it’s clear that Trump is gaining momentum just when it matters most. Polls from Emerson College show Trump ahead in almost every crucial state: Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. In fact, he’s up in all but two of these battleground states, and even in Wisconsin, where he’s tied, that might actually be good news for him given how often polls miss the mark in favor of Democrats in that state.
Take Wisconsin as a prime example. Back in 2022, Senator Ron Johnson outperformed the polling average by 2.5 percentage points. And this isn’t the first time the polls have underestimated Trump’s support in Wisconsin. They did it in both 2016 and 2020, underestimating his vote share significantly. If history repeats itself, a tie in the polls may actually be a sign that Trump has the edge heading into election day.
But the real game-changer here is Pennsylvania. It’s no secret that Pennsylvania could be the state that decides the whole thing. Four of the last five polls out of The Keystone State show Trump leading, which puts him in a prime position. And Trump knows this—he’s been hitting Pennsylvania hard, holding multiple rallies across the state, including stops in Scranton and Reading. You can bet he’s going to keep pounding the pavement there until the very last vote is cast.
Meanwhile, there’s a growing sense of panic in the Harris camp, which isn’t doing so well in its internal polling. Mark Halperin, the first to report that Joe Biden would drop out of the race, recently noted that Harris’ internal numbers are looking grim. In a pointed message to Harris supporters, Halperin essentially told them to stop pretending everything’s fine, unless they’re tuning into MSNBC for a dose of delusion. His take? The private polling data shows Harris is in deep trouble, and she’s struggling to pull herself out.
Harris and her handlers seem to sense the impending disaster. That’s likely why she’s been doing a series of awkward, and frankly, disastrous interviews with people like Howard Stern and Stephen Colbert. Desperate times, desperate measures. Yet, these media appearances don’t seem to be helping her case. Even though this race is still close (within the margin of error in most polls), the conventional wisdom says that being tied at this point is actually good news for Trump.
Of course, Republicans can’t just sit back and assume the polling errors of 2016 and 2020 will repeat themselves. Getting ballots in early through voting remains a top priority. But for now, it’s safe to say Trump is in a stronger position than he’s been in previous elections. The winds are blowing in his favor, and the Democrats might be feeling the heat more than they’re willing to admit.
