On September 29, the Bayfront Convention Center was packed with thousands of Trump supporters, eager to hear the former president speak. As if that wasn’t enough, hundreds more gathered outside the convention center, watching his speech on a giant display. It had all the trappings of a classic Trump rally: stands to register voters, mail-in ballot promotions, and plenty of Trump-Vance yard signs and bumper stickers to go around. It’s almost like a political carnival, minus the funnel cake.
But there’s more to this than just a show. Erie County, where the rally took place, isn’t just any random location in Pennsylvania. It’s one of those places that has a history of picking winners. Since 1980, with only one exception, the county has backed the victor of the statewide presidential race. That makes Erie County a pretty solid barometer for which way Pennsylvania might go in 2024, and with Pennsylvania being a major swing state, that could mean everything in the general election.
Of course, Erie isn’t exactly a national bellwether—it has a tendency to back candidates who might win Pennsylvania but lose the broader election. But since 2008, Erie’s voting patterns have matched the overall winner of Pennsylvania, and that makes it a critical area to watch in the upcoming election. Pundits agree: whoever takes Pennsylvania in 2024 is likely to win the White House. So yeah, it’s no wonder Trump is putting in the effort here.
It’s interesting to note how quickly things have shifted in Erie. Back in the Obama days, Democrats were sitting pretty. In 2008, Obama won the county by a whopping 20 points, and in 2012 he followed up with a 16.9-point win. Then Trump came along in 2016 and flipped the county by an incredible 18.5 points, edging out a victory by 1.6 percent. That’s not just a swing—that’s a political earthquake. By 2020, the race in Erie reflected the tight margins seen across the nation, with Biden squeaking out a win by just 1 percent, or 1,417 votes. It’s clear the county’s politics are in flux.
Erie County is a fascinating mix of demographics and geography. It’s situated at the northwestern tip of Pennsylvania, bordering the Great Lake of the same name, along with Ohio and upstate New York. The city of Erie itself has a sizable immigrant population and a lot of university students, which gives it a more liberal lean. But outside the city, you’ve got suburban developments and, further south, a more rural area filled with small townships. Then there’s the Rust Belt factor, with its abandoned factories and industrial decay. It’s the kind of place where economic frustrations run deep, and that’s part of what made Trump’s message resonate in 2016.
Erie County is, in many ways, a microcosm of the broader political battle in Pennsylvania. Both parties know it’s a battleground that can’t be ignored.
