According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris in all of the major swing states as the presidential race heads into its final stretch. With a slim 0.8-point advantage, Trump is pulling in 48.3% support across seven critical battleground states, leaving Harris trailing at 47.5%. These states include Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada—states that, as usual, are playing their favorite role as kingmakers in the election.
Trump’s lead is largely driven by male voters, where he holds an 11-point advantage, while Harris, predictably, enjoys a 15-point lead with female voters. This gap among male voters should raise eyebrows, especially since Trump had similar support in 2020, where he led Biden among both male and white voters. It seems that not much has changed since then, as Trump continues to find strong backing among men, particularly in the working-class demographic.
Arizona, where Biden barely eked out a win in 2020, has Trump leading by 1.4 points, with 48.8% to Harris’ 47.4%. In Nevada, Trump is narrowly ahead by 0.5 points, an edge that could be enough to flip a state that has been trending blue in recent cycles. Nationally, Trump has a two-point lead over Harris, according to a Fox News poll. For all the media talk about Harris’s “historic candidacy,” it appears that many voters are more interested in getting their grocery bills under control than breaking glass ceilings.
Voters have made it clear what’s top of mind in this election: the economy. A Gallup survey from Oct. 9 shows that most voters trust Trump over Harris to handle the U.S. economy. This issue alone is making the Harris campaign sweat bullets, especially since inflation, rising childcare costs, and basic necessities like baby formula are causing major headaches for American families.
Democrats are scrambling to shore up support for Harris, particularly among Black voters, but it seems Trump has managed to chip away at Harris’s base even further. In fact, Trump is now outperforming Harris with Hispanic male voters nationally. Despite the Democrats throwing over $200 million into reshaping Harris’s image, Trump’s message continues to resonate. As the Republican National Committee put it, voters aren’t buying what Harris is selling, especially when they’re paying 32% more for childcare than they were before she took office. And it’s not just groceries or diapers voters are concerned about—it’s the broader failure of what many see as Harris and the Democrats’ out-of-touch policies.
In short, Trump is on the rise, and with the economy on the ballot, it seems Harris might have an even tougher hill to climb than she anticipated. Democrats may want to brace themselves for the possibility that their liberal agenda is simply not cutting it for the everyday American.
