Vulnerable Democratic incumbents are running scared, and it’s hard to miss the desperation. Several endangered Democratic Senators have suddenly found a new appreciation for the man their party’s nominee, Kamala Harris, is warning will end democracy as we know it. And it’s no coincidence that these candidates cozying up to Donald Trump are all trying to survive in swing states where voters are much less impressed by the Biden-Harris administration.
Take Senators Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, for instance. Both of them are now airing ads that shamelessly highlight their connection to Trump—yes, that Trump. In Baldwin’s ad, the narrator boasts about how she got Trump to sign her “Made in America” bill, while Casey’s campaign ad talks about how he bravely “bucked Biden” to protect fracking and stood with Trump on issues like ending NAFTA and slapping tariffs on China. Funny how Trump is suddenly the go-to guy for these Democrats when their jobs are on the line.
Then there’s Montana’s Senator Jon Tester and Ohio’s Senator Sherrod Brown, who are also scrambling to put some daylight between themselves and the toxic Biden-Harris brand. Tester, for example, is running ads that feature Montanans who claim to be “lifelong Republicans” but are still planning to vote for him. Meanwhile, Brown is bragging about a bill he wrote that Trump signed to crack down on drugs at the border. Apparently, these Democrats are only too happy to tout Trump’s accomplishments when it suits their survival.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) wasted no time pointing out the irony, noting that these same Democrats all voted to impeach Trump—twice. Yet, here they are, singing his praises when it’s politically convenient. But don’t expect the Democratic Senate campaign arm to comment on this awkward dance; they’ve gone radio silent.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin from Michigan is another Democrat in trouble. She’s locked in a tight race with Republican Rep. Mike Rogers and has even opposed electric vehicle mandates—a core Biden policy. Her latest ad could have been plucked straight from a Trump playbook, as she declares she doesn’t own an electric car and won’t let anyone mandate what people should drive. Slotkin’s trying hard to convince voters she’s no Biden loyalist, even if she shares the same party.
But it’s not just Biden’s unpopular policies weighing these Democrats down. The practice of ticket-splitting—voting for candidates of different parties—is fading fast in an era of hyper-polarization. While voters used to be willing to pick a president from one party and a senator or representative from another, that’s become a rarity. In 2020, fewer than 4% of congressional districts saw split-ticket voting, a stark contrast to 40% four decades ago.
Yet, in these razor-thin Senate races, those few remaining split-ticket voters could make all the difference. With many Americans now identifying as political independents, according to Gallup, the few who choose candidates from both parties may still be the ones to tip the balance in these battleground states. The Democrats embracing Trump are banking on it.
