Busken Bakery in Cincinnati has become a surprisingly accurate bellwether for predicting presidential election outcomes, and it looks like Donald Trump is in the lead among its customers. For nearly four decades, this “swing bakery” has been letting patrons cast their cookie-based votes, with each candidate represented by a cookie adorned with their likeness. If you’re rooting for Trump, you buy the Trump cookie; if you’re for Kamala Harris, you buy hers. The bakery’s playful approach has accurately mirrored election results since 1984, with only one miss in 2020, a year many on the right argue had issues with the election process.
By late September, Trump held a modest 15-point lead in cookie sales, but by October, that lead had ballooned significantly, now standing at a commanding 68-point advantage. According to Busken Bakery’s recent Facebook update, Trump’s cookie tally was at 29,940 compared to Harris’s 11,521, with a third option—represented by a smiley face for independent or undecided voters—pulling in just over 2,000 votes. Given these results, it seems Ohio’s cookie enthusiasts are strongly favoring Trump.
Though it’s a fun, informal poll, Busken Bakery’s cookie competition has an impressive track record. This makes the large gap between Trump and Harris noteworthy, especially since these cookies are sold publicly at a popular location. Sure, some critics might argue that such a poll could be skewed if one side decided to mobilize their base to drive up cookie sales, but it would take a lot of coordinating to push the needle by nearly 20,000 cookies.
As expected, the bakery’s Facebook post and its comment section attracted plenty of chatter, especially from Republican-leaning voters who are enjoying this apparent trend in Trump’s favor. Supporters from the GOP side wasted no time in voicing their satisfaction, sharing comments on how this small slice of the Midwest is reading the political winds and maybe offering a preview of things to come.
Ultimately, Busken Bakery’s cookie poll may be unscientific, but it’s part of a tradition that resonates with a bit of Midwestern charm—and a dash of humor. With an election season full of intense campaigns, political ads, and serious debates, this lighthearted “swing bakery” poll offers a unique, tasty snapshot of voter sentiment—one cookie at a time.
