It looks like Sen. Bob Casey Jr. is feeling the heat in Pennsylvania, and he should be. He’s one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats in this election cycle, and while some earlier polls had him comfortably ahead, recent ones paint a very different picture. You know the type—those typical “Democrat up by nine points” kinds of polls. But now, reality is starting to catch up, and Republican challenger Dave McCormick is picking up serious momentum. The latest numbers are showing a razor-thin race, with Casey up by just a couple of points in most polls, well within the margin of error.
Even Casey’s slight lead in the polls is basically nothing to bank on. An Emerson College poll has him barely clinging to a two-point advantage. Trafalgar’s poll? It’s got him up by just a single point. And let’s not forget the Sentinel Action Fund’s poll, which has Casey up by a meager 1% over McCormick—hardly the kind of cushion that should make a career politician sleep easy. Looks like McCormick’s campaign is starting to hit its stride just as things heat up in the final weeks. If I were Casey, I’d be sweating a little.
Now, Jessica Anderson, president of the Sentinel Action Fund, seems pretty optimistic about Republicans’ chances. And for good reason. She knows Pennsylvania is ground zero for control of the Senate and even the White House. According to her, independents could be the ones to flip this whole thing. She points out how tied things are in both the Senate and presidential races in Pennsylvania—Trump and Harris tied at 47%, and Casey barely ahead of McCormick. That’s a dead heat, folks, and Anderson’s not shy about calling out the importance of Pennsylvania in the 2024 election.
Of course, the real magic happens in the trenches—on the ground, getting those low-propensity voters to the polls. Anderson and her group, along with their Republican buddies, have been working like crazy to boost election accessibility. And no, that doesn’t mean they’re sitting around hoping people just show up. They’ve introduced new tools to push for more mail-in ballots and early in-person voting, and it’s paying off. The number of Republicans requesting mail-in ballots has doubled compared to 2020. Yep, Republicans are finally getting with the program when it comes to early voting.
It’s no secret that in 2020, Democrats were all about mail-in voting. For every 100 Dems that mailed in their vote, only about 35 Republicans did the same. But guess what? In 2024, that number is up to 42 GOP voters for every 100 Democrats. Not earth-shattering, but it’s progress. And progress is what wins elections on the margins, especially in a state like Pennsylvania. Anderson’s confidence is clear: Republicans are building serious momentum with their new early voting strategies, and it’s giving them a leg up heading into Election Day. With Democrat voter registration on the decline and Republican energy building, this could be the election that flips Pennsylvania red again.
