Fresh from stepping back into the political arena in Britain, Brexit architect Nigel Farage is predicted to triumph in the seaside constituency of Clacton at the upcoming general election on July 4th, securing a seat in Parliament. After initially being caught off guard by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s decision to call for a snap summer election, Farage declared on Monday that he would lead Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party) for at least the next five years and aim to unseat the Tories in Clacton.
Farage, one of the most influential political figures in post-World War II Britain, spearheaded the movement that led the UK out of the European Union and away from the unelected bureaucrats of Brussels. Despite his significant impact, Farage has never held office in Britain, a point his critics often highlight. However, Farage maintains that most of his previous parliamentary runs were intended to amplify his nationalist-populist platform on a national scale, with the notable exception of his 2015 bid in South Thanet, where a Conservative operative was later found guilty of falsifying election expenses.
Though Farage has faced challenges in securing a seat in the UK Parliament, he has a record of electoral success, having served as a Member of the European Parliament from 1999 until the UK’s withdrawal from the EU in 2020. In the 2019 EU Parliament elections, his Brexit Party garnered a remarkable 5.2 million votes, significantly outpacing Theresa May’s Conservatives. Despite the UK’s first-past-the-post voting system favoring the two main establishment parties and the limited campaign time for the snap election, there is optimism that Farage’s eighth run for Parliament might be successful.
On Monday, Farage vowed to surpass the Tories in vote share and promised to replace them as the true small-c conservative opposition party. He aims to lead a “political revolt” against the Westminster establishment to finally deliver on the promises of Brexit, such as ending mass migration. Former Downing Street pollster James Johnson and Financial Times correspondent Jim Pickard both expressed confidence in Farage’s chances, citing widespread disillusionment with Westminster and the main parties.
The political landscape in Clacton appears favorable for Farage. The coastal region, like many other seaside areas, has faced economic hardships, with economic inactivity at 46.8 percent compared to the national average of 21.7 percent. Clacton also saw one of the highest vote shares for Brexit in 2016, with over 70 percent backing the Farage-led referendum. Additionally, the constituency previously sent a member of Farage’s former party, UKIP, to the House of Commons in 2014. Farage’s decision to run in Clacton is bolstered by a January poll from Survation, which found that he would win the election with 37 percent of the vote, beating the incumbent Conservative MP Giles Watling by ten points.
Overall, Farage’s return to the political fray has generated significant momentum, with many believing he could achieve his long-sought goal of securing a seat in Parliament and revitalizing the conservative movement in the UK.
