It looks like the Democrats’ vote-by-mail dominance from 2020 is slipping, and that’s excellent news for Republicans and former President Donald Trump. According to the latest data, the Democratic advantage in mail-in voting requests has taken a serious nosedive in key battleground states like Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Jimmy Keady, a GOP strategist, pointed out that it’s about time Republicans are catching on to the importance of early voting. Better late than never, right?
The numbers don’t lie. In Florida, the Democratic lead in mail-in ballots has shrunk by over 5%, while North Carolina has seen nearly a 15% drop. Pennsylvania, one of the biggest battlegrounds, has experienced a massive 35% decline in Democrats requesting mail-in ballots. For Republicans, this means the ground game is changing, and they’re finally making moves in areas where the Dems had the upper hand in the last two elections.
Early voting, whether by mail or in person, is a game-changer when it comes to allocating resources. Once a voter has cast their ballot, campaigns can stop bombarding them with text messages, mail, and robocalls—something we all know gets old fast. Instead, those efforts can be redirected to get out the lower-propensity voters, the folks who could end up swinging tight races in places like Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
Speaking of tight races, both states are expected to see razor-thin margins. In Pennsylvania, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a paper-thin lead, while Trump is slightly ahead in North Carolina. The ability to turn out voters early could be the deciding factor, and the shift in mail-in voting trends certainly tilts the scales in favor of the GOP. The Democrats may have had an edge in early voting in 2020, but that advantage is quickly fading.
Keady points out that this shift signals not just voter turnout, but also a growing acceptance among Republicans that early voting is a legitimate and secure way to cast your ballot. For too long, the GOP has lagged behind in this area, but it looks like the tide is turning. If Republicans can get their base to embrace early voting and mail-in ballots, they’ll be in a much better position to compete with Democrats and perhaps swing a close election in their favor. The Democrats might have perfected this strategy over the years, but the Republicans are finally catching on. Better buckle up—it’s going to be a tight race.
