Donald Trump is now enjoying a significant lead on the betting platform Polymarket, boasting an almost double-digit advantage over Kamala Harris. This is the largest gap he’s held since Harris entered the race for the White House. Trump’s chances of winning have been on the rise in recent weeks, with Harris’ early momentum fading fast. Her shaky start in the spotlight hasn’t done her any favors, and polls are increasingly shifting in Trump’s direction. Her poor media appearances have certainly contributed to her loss of ground.
But let’s not pretend Harris is the only reason Trump’s numbers are surging. His campaign has been working hard, focusing on key battleground areas and addressing issues that voters care about. His response to Hurricane Helene also hit home with many people. While Harris stumbles through the media gauntlet, Trump’s team is capitalizing on every opportunity to boost his appeal. Heading into October, the two candidates were neck and neck on Polymarket, but by October 6, the tides shifted dramatically.
So, what changed? Trump held a massive rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, and the day after, his lead opened up. Now he’s ahead by 8 percentage points, with 53.2% to Harris’ 45.2%. That’s a significant margin, especially considering that over $1.5 billion in bets are being placed on this race. The betting public seems to believe Trump has the upper hand, and the momentum is clearly on his side.
Harris just hasn’t been able to keep up. Her weak performances in front of the media have hurt her credibility, and she’s struggling to connect with voters in a meaningful way. Meanwhile, Trump is pounding away on the issues that matter to his base and beyond, steadily growing his support. With a lead like this, Harris has a long road ahead if she hopes to close the gap.
In the end, the betting markets are reflecting the broader trends we’re seeing in polls: Trump is taking control of this race. Unless Harris can make a big comeback, Trump’s chances of winning continue to look strong. The gap isn’t impossible to close, but it’s definitely a reality check for Democrats watching their candidate fall behind.
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