When the 119th Congress convenes on January 3, 2025, Republicans will find themselves navigating the precarious waters of a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives. The GOP’s initial count of 220 seats, just barely clearing the 218-seat threshold for a majority, is already slipping. With looming vacancies, their ability to pass legislation and maintain control is under immediate strain.
The first crack in the GOP’s slim majority comes courtesy of Florida’s 1st District, where Rep. Matt Gaetz resigned in November 2024 after being nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to serve as Attorney General. While the nomination faced bipartisan criticism due to allegations against Gaetz in a scathing House Ethics Committee report, his withdrawal from consideration hasn’t erased the complications his resignation creates for Republicans. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has called for a special election, but with the process dragging out into late spring, the GOP is left down a seat for at least several weeks. Given the district’s heavily Republican lean, the seat is expected to stay red, but its temporary vacancy reduces the GOP majority to just two seats.
Meanwhile, Rep. Michael Waltz of Florida’s 6th District is set to join Trump’s administration as National Security Advisor, a Cabinet-level position not requiring Senate confirmation. Waltz’s resignation, effective on Inauguration Day, January 20, leaves another gap for the GOP to fill. As with Gaetz’s seat, DeSantis has called for a special election, but the timeline again leaves Republicans shorthanded. This further reduces the GOP’s already fragile majority, leaving little room for error in legislative battles. State Senator Randy Fine, backed by Trump and several GOP heavyweights, is the frontrunner to replace Waltz in this reliably Republican district.
The situation grows murkier with New York’s 21st District, represented by Elise Stefanik, who has been tapped by Trump to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Unlike Waltz, Stefanik’s role requires Senate confirmation, leaving an uncertain timeline for her resignation. Should she step down, New York’s special election laws will further complicate matters, with no primary and nominees chosen by party committees. If Stefanik’s seat is left vacant alongside the Florida districts, the GOP majority could temporarily shrink to a precarious zero seats, effectively paralyzing the party’s ability to pass legislation without unanimous internal support.
The Republican Party’s paper-thin majority presents a logistical and political nightmare for House Speaker Mike Johnson, who already struggled to keep the conference united during the last Congress. With just one or two dissenting votes capable of sinking key legislation, the GOP faces an uphill battle to advance Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda. Memories of the October 2023 coup that ousted Kevin McCarthy as Speaker loom large, with factions like the House Freedom Caucus ready to flex their power at a moment’s notice. Even a single “motion to vacate the chair” could send the GOP scrambling to maintain order.
As Trump’s administration prepares to govern, these vacancies and narrow margins put Republicans in a precarious position. While the party is eager to enact Trump’s policy priorities, internal divisions and the ongoing game of musical chairs in key districts leave little room for missteps. With Trump already threatening primary challenges against dissenting Republicans, the party’s legislative future looks more like a high-wire act than a march to policy victories.
