Donald Trump and the Republicans are keeping a close eye on early voter turnout, buoyed by recent numbers that suggest Trump may be shifting the electoral landscape in a way that extends beyond the usual swing states. Traditional battlegrounds like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina remain key, but Nevada, a state that hasn’t leaned Republican in nearly two decades, has entered the fray. Reports indicate that Trump is holding a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in Nevada, a sign that the state might flip for the GOP for the first time since George W. Bush won it in 2004. With early voting well underway, Republicans are hoping these figures signal an expanded path to victory.
The early voting data is fueling Republican optimism, with a 2.5% advantage reported in turnout—a notable shift, especially for a party that has historically shown skepticism toward early voting and mail-in ballots. Traditionally, Republican voters have preferred Election Day voting, wary of methods they associate with potential fraud. However, it seems GOP voters are now taking advantage of early voting, adding an unexpected layer to the race. The reported turnout numbers show more than 333,000 ballots have been cast in Nevada, representing roughly 16.6% of the state’s electorate, offering insight into the level of engagement from both sides.
In particular, the state’s urban areas like Las Vegas could play a decisive role. Despite Republican momentum in the state overall, the densely populated Las Vegas area still shows a strong Democratic presence, with exit polls suggesting Democrats hold a slim 1-point lead there. This slight Democratic advantage in Las Vegas highlights the uphill battle Republicans may still face in urban centers, even as they build traction in Nevada overall. Urban areas traditionally lean blue, meaning Trump’s campaign will need a significant rural turnout to counterbalance Democratic votes.
The surge in GOP turnout for early voting is interesting in itself, as it suggests the Republican base is adapting to new voting methods, potentially out of a sense of urgency for 2024. This shift in approach could help mitigate past concerns over early and mail-in voting while drawing in voters who might otherwise wait until Election Day. The potential Nevada win speaks to Trump’s wider strategy of not only securing traditional swing states but also reaching into territories that have previously been out of reach for Republicans.
For Democrats, the Nevada numbers are likely setting off alarms as they calculate how to maintain the slim leads they traditionally hold in urban strongholds. If Nevada swings red in this election, it could represent a broader trend that shifts the 2024 race. The close nature of early voting results in Nevada may indicate that the electoral map is less predictable than anticipated, setting the stage for what could be one of the most hotly contested elections in recent history.
🚨 BREAKING: Nevada experiences a dramatic +25 point swing towards Republicans on the first day of Early Voting! 🇺🇸 #ElectionUpdate
— Tony Lane 🇺🇸 (@TonyLaneNV) October 20, 2024
In Clark County, NV, a whopping 22,000 in-person voters cast their ballots on day one of early voting.
Early Voting Stats:
2020:
🔵 44% (+7)
🔴… pic.twitter.com/ooJb2YVBio
