AtlasIntel, a polling firm known for its accuracy in 2020, recently released numbers for the 2024 election, and they’re turning heads. According to their poll, Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris nationally by about three points—Trump sits at 50.7% and Harris trails at 47.6%. In a direct head-to-head matchup, Trump’s lead tightens only slightly, with him at 50.8% and Harris at 48.1%. For Trump, this is the kind of momentum his campaign has been waiting for, as a national lead of this size typically translates into a comfortable Electoral College victory.
Pollster Nate Silver has even suggested that a two- to three-point national lead for Trump could give him a near-100% chance of winning the Electoral College. But before popping the champagne, there’s a glaring problem when you look at the swing state results. Despite Trump’s national edge, Harris is still managing to cling to slim leads in key battleground states like North Carolina and Wisconsin. It’s an odd disconnect, considering a solid national lead should be reflected in those crucial states.
The real head-scratcher is the inconsistency in the swing state polling. Trump is up in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, but Harris somehow holds narrow leads in North Carolina and Arizona. That’s an unusual breakdown. Typically, if Trump is performing strongly in Michigan and Pennsylvania, he should also be dominating in places like Wisconsin, yet Harris is leading there. The numbers just don’t add up logically—how could Georgia poll stronger for Trump than North Carolina, or Michigan outperform Arizona?
Then comes the even weirder twist: if these results hold, we could be looking at a dreaded 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. Yes, a tie—something that’s never happened in U.S. presidential history, and the kind of scenario that would plunge the country into chaos. While a tie is theoretically possible, the chances of it happening are so slim it’s almost unthinkable. But, according to AtlasIntel’s data, Trump still has the slight edge overall.
This polling highlights just how unpredictable the 2024 race is turning out to be. Trump’s national numbers look good, but the swing state polling raises more questions than it answers. It’s far from a settled race, and the path to victory remains a winding, uncertain one for both candidates. The Electoral College map is shaping up to be a puzzle that might take until the last minute to solve.
