Nate Silver has thrown some cold water on Kamala Harris’s prospects, pointing out she’s a “modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College.” This brings up the nightmare scenario for Democrats of another popular vote-Electoral College split like those that derailed them in 2000 and 2016. Remember how Biden’s victory in 2020 hinged on less than 50,000 votes in just a few battleground states? Silver suggests Harris has an even wider gap between popular vote and Electoral College prospects than Biden did.
One of the key reasons Harris faces an uphill battle is because she isn’t the sitting president. Biden, despite all his flaws and shaky polling numbers, still enjoys the bonus of incumbency. Harris, on the other hand, doesn’t get that same boost. Silver’s model has the Harris-Trump matchup as almost an exact tie in the popular vote, whereas Biden had a slight edge last time. The model’s fundamentals show a tied popular vote, which isn’t exactly comforting for Harris supporters.
Silver breaks down his model’s process like this: First, it takes the current polling snapshot, which shows Trump ahead by a mere 0.4 points. Then it adjusts for the convention bounce, which nudges Harris slightly ahead. Finally, it regresses toward the fundamentals-based prior, which shows a tied popular vote. As the election approaches, the weight of the fundamentals in the model fades to zero.
So where does this leave us? According to Silver, Harris is forecasted to win the popular vote by just 0.6 percentage points. Not exactly a confidence booster for Democrats who remember how those slim margins have played out before. With the economic data still rolling in, this forecast could shift, but as it stands, Harris has a rocky road ahead in the Electoral College.
In essence, Silver’s analysis highlights a significant challenge for Harris. She’s not just battling Trump; she’s also grappling with the structural disadvantage Democrats have faced in recent Electoral College battles. And without the incumbency advantage Biden had, her path to victory looks even steeper.
So what does this mean for the election? Harris might have a slight edge in the national popular vote, but she’s trailing in the Electoral College. “Instead … drumroll … she has a 38 percent chance, compared to 61 percent for Trump and roughly a 1 percent chance of no Electoral College majority because of a 269-269 tie (or RFK Jr. earning some electoral votes).” There’s one factor that Silver seems to be missing. Kamala’s rise as the presumptive nominee could have a similar effect on the polls as a convention bounce. RealClearPolitics averages show that Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead, which was expected. The real question is whether this momentum will last or if it’s just a temporary surge. Either way, the election dynamics have been reset to pre-debate conditions, but with increased enthusiasm among Democrats.
In the end, the blue states that were competitive with Biden on the ticket aren’t looking as competitive now. This means we’re back to the situation where Trump needs to win just one of the “Blue Wall” states (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) while Kamala has to sweep all three.
