The numbers don’t lie—there are hundreds of thousands of noncitizens living in each of the seven key battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of the next presidential election. With estimates suggesting that more than a million noncitizens could cast ballots nationwide if they vote at the same rates as in past elections, it’s clear why this is a growing concern for those who care about election integrity. Georgia, in particular, leads the pack with over 787,000 adult noncitizens, and that’s just one state.
North Carolina isn’t far behind, with around 726,000 noncitizens, according to recent data analyzed by the Center for Immigration Studies. Arizona, another state that’s sure to be a fierce battleground in November, has over 611,000 noncitizens who could potentially influence the vote. The Center for Immigration Studies, a think tank focused on enforcing immigration laws, is sounding the alarm about how this could affect close elections.
Other states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada also have significant noncitizen populations, with numbers ranging from 516,000 in Pennsylvania to over 129,000 in Wisconsin. Even a small percentage of these noncitizens voting could flip these critical swing states, which are expected to be decided by narrow margins. The potential impact is undeniable, even if not all of these individuals are registered to vote.
While it’s difficult to know exactly how many noncitizens will cast a vote in the upcoming election, studies suggest that up to 1.5 million could do so if past trends hold true. And even though Democrats love to dismiss concerns about noncitizen voting as conspiracy theories, the numbers speak for themselves. Recent research indicates that somewhere between 10% and 27% of noncitizens may be illegally registered to vote, which could have a profound impact on close races.
This isn’t just speculation—cases of noncitizens voting have been reported in both blue and red states in recent years. Whether it’s Georgia, where strong voter ID laws are in place, or states like Michigan and Pennsylvania that lack proper citizenship verification, the possibility of noncitizens influencing elections is real. Without stronger election integrity measures, noncitizen votes could easily change the outcome of major races, including the presidency. The stakes have never been higher.
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